After trying and also practicing many betting strategies, staking methods, and so-called bulletproof systems I can say that value betting is the most profitable and reliable betting strategy in the long run.
Like other similar betting strategies, value betting has some advantages and downsides as well.
I created this article to share the majority of my knowledge about positive EV betting or value betting by another name.
What is value betting? Positive EV betting explained
Positive expected value (EV) betting is the same strategy but with different names. Value betting is the process of finding betting opportunities where the bookies are not able to define the real probability of the outcomes.
Explained in simple words following a value betting software is the strategy or system based on finding overpriced betting outcomes that can offer value for bettors who aim for long-term profits. This strategy or loophole is available to every bookmaker without exceptions.
Even sharp betting sites such as Pinnacle or Bookmaker.eu make many mistakes daily. The goal of value bettors is figuring out which outcome is offered with wrong odds or betting lines.
Positive EV (value) betting example explained:
The majority of betting sites take the simple coin flip example. But in this article, I would like to offer some real-life value betting examples.
1. Football value betting example
Finding value bets on football is fairly easy but following events in play will offer the most opportunity for finding wrong betting lines or odds.
Let’s assume that based on statistics and the stage of the match the home team has a 50% chance to win the event or make a draw.
For this outcome, the true odds without the profit margin of the bookie should be 2.00. Some betting sites get some crucial with a slight delay. They stick to the odds of 1.92 (the same odds but include the juice of the betting site).
The majority of betting sites drop the odds to 1.83. If you can catch that odd of 1.92 at your betting site, you will get a positive EV of around 5% on your bet.
2. Tennis positive EV (value) betting example
I will take a simple value betting example with two tennis players with the same performance. Both of them have a 50% chance to win the event. In this case, betting sites will offer odds of around 1.85 – 1.90 depending on their profit margin.
The way bookies create odds is different in many cases. Some of them have their system, while others tend to copy the odds of bigger betting sites.
As with the football value betting example, it’s not uncommon that bookies to miss some crucial information about players, and teams. This mistake will create positive EV betting opportunities.
In this tennis value betting example, if you can pick one of the players on odds higher than 2.00, you will place a value bet.
How does value betting work?
1. Understand what a value bet is
The first and most important step of this strategy is understanding and accepting the basics of what a positive EV bet is. Many bettors don’t accept the simple fact that placing bets on higher odds than their real probability of winning, will generate long-term profits.
This strategy is based on simple statistical and mathematical facts. Take coin flipping for an example. You will win 50% of your picks in the long run. This possibility would mean the true odds of 2.
What would happen if you could get odds of 2.10 for this same event? Well, after many coinflips you will have a higher payout than your investments.
After 100 coinflips each with a stake of $100, your total investment would be $10.000. Based on simple statistics you would lose 50% ($5000). The other 50 bets would have a payout of 2.10*50*$100 = $5500 (without positive EV odds it would be $5000).
The additional profit of $500 is the result of positive expected value bets. You might experience a streak of losing 5-12 flips but if you play enough the statistical probability will always prevail.
2. Trust the process of value betting
When I started value betting my biggest struggle was trusting the process even when I had a longer losing streak. Positive EV betting is based on long-term profitability, betting on overpriced odds or wrong betting lines, and a working staking plan.
If your strategy includes each of these, there is no way you will end up losing all of your money. I need to mention that there can be a big difference between thinking that you follow a good staking strategy and having one.
On the other hand, it’s not rare that we think the betting lines are overpriced while in reality, we can have a wrong approach. Most value bettors use sharp bookies such as Pinnacle or Bookmaker.eu to define the real probability of an outcome.
Based on my experience, even the sharpest bookies and bettors can make major mistakes and can offer overpriced markets. If you follow these betting lines you might often face a longer losing streak.
One of the most important factors for long-term success is getting information from a good source and trusting the process of positive EV betting. It might take placing 500+ bets until you see the benefits of this betting system but eventually you will end up with decent profits.
3. Follow fast and accurate value betting software
I’ve been value betting with different methods. Finding positive EV bets manually is possible and I think it’s one of the most profitable and least detectable ways of making money from sports betting. Even the most sensitive betting sites let me grow my balance to a decent level until I got some kind of limitation.
A value betting strategy or system that does not require any kind of bookmaker scanner service will always need a decent level of experience. For this, each bettor needs to practice positive EV betting with the help of value betting services.
These betting algorithms compare odds from soft (slow) bookies with odds from sharp (fairly accurate) odds. Opting in for a similar service is essential not only for beginner bettors but even for advanced value betting strategies as well.
A value betting software can speed up the process and can help you find a hundred times more positive EV bets compared to value betting manually.
A fast and accurate value bet finder is capable of displaying overpriced odds before other bettors could spot them.
The biggest advantage of using a similar software is the time and energy you save by not being forced to constantly check each event one by one manually. This way you won’t get tired so fast and working even 12+ hours I less exhausting (based on my experience).
You can check my detailed article about the top value bet spotter. I have used each of them and the majority of my betting capital was generated with the help of the top services from this list such as (BetBurger and RebelBetting value betting review).
Is value betting profitable?
One of the most important things that a beginner bettor wants to know about positive EV betting is the amount of profit it can generate.
The amount you can make with value betting depends on many factors such as your starting capital, the number of bookies you have access to, the country/state you are from, the value betting software, your level of experience, risk tolerance, value betting strategy, and some more.
If you are betting from countries such as the USA or UK, you will have access to many betting sites that support even bigger stakes.
Experienced sports bettors from countries with a high GDP and bookies that don’t handle big deposits and stakes with suspicion will have the opportunity for making over $3000/month fairly easily.
Football value betting strategies
Football (soccer) is one of the most popular and best sports for value betting. I have made a big part of my profits on football corners, goals, handicaps, and winner markets.
The number of big football events and fans is making football a sport where smart bettors will face fewer stake limitations. Many average bettors use even smaller markets such as correct scores, bets on players, cards, etc.
This way value betting strategies on football markets such as corners won’t be too outstanding when placing bets only on slightly overpriced markets when the matches are in play.
The best football value betting strategies:
- Pre-match football value betting on big events and main markets only (first league from European countries) so bookies won’t flag your account right away
- In-play football value betting on main events and markets: requires more experience but will help avoid stake limitations for a longer period
- In-play positive EV betting on smaller markets such as half corners, handicaps, and even cards: you will find more value bets and with a higher return. I advise placing value bets on these markets and bigger mistakes (value bets over 5% – 7%) after using an account for at least several days or 200 – 300 bets. This way you will have slightly more chance of delaying the limitations.
Live/In-play value betting
Live value betting is the Holy Graal of sports betting. Each sports bettor who gets enough experience in this field will have a decent advantage over bookies and other bettors.
When the matches are in-play, each betting site is making any major mistakes and it is fairly hard for them to spot each of these. In sports such as basketball or tennis, the odds are moving so fast that sometimes even obvious mistakes will remain unnoticed for many seconds.
It’s not uncommon that betting sites get data with a slight delay so you can catch decent betting line differences on basketball or tennis.
In fast sports like these, the power difference between players and teams can switch in seconds. The majority of betting sites don’t have the resource to spot these on each event and every time.
Value bettors who have the time and experience to follow and analyze in-play events will spot many great opportunities. Tennis is a great example of these positive EV bets.
While live tennis value betting you can find odds differences between Pinnacle and your local betting sites. These are excellent only by themselves but sometimes even Pinnacle underestimates a situation. While watching WTA events, it’s very common that a player destroys her opponent in a set.
Placing bets on breaks on these events generated a decent amount of profit for me. The biggest profits from positive EV betting will be generated by combining value betting software with common sense.
Is value betting risk-free?
Value betting is not a risk-free betting strategy/system. It is based on mathematics and long-term returns but each value bettor will face even longer losing streaks.
Even if you focus only on bigger mistakes, opportunities with bigger positive EVs, losing streaks of 8-12 bets are possible and you should have a fairly high-risk tolerance.
As I already mentioned, trusting the process and following reliable value betting software is essential to succeed.
Conclusion on value betting
Value betting is the process of finding overpriced betting outcomes that can offer long-term profits when betting with the right stakes. Positive expected value (EV) betting is the most profitable betting strategy but it is not risk-free like matched betting.
Positive expected value (EV) betting is the most profitable betting strategy that focuses on long-term returns and betting outcomes and lines that are overpriced by the betting sites.
Positive expected value (EV) betting can generate the most profits even compared to risk-free betting systems such as arbitrage betting. Value bettors with a decent starting capital (over $4000).