Is value betting profitable? Possible earnings (2023)

Value betting ranks as the most rewarding intelligent betting method. A large sample of value bettors has revealed that value betting can yield 60% – 70% higher returns than other strategies such as arbitrage betting.

I have encountered similar results while value betting. Sure betting provides a nearly risk-free income, but with significantly smaller profits in most cases.

Is value betting profitable? Possible earning/approach

Pre-match Value betting profitability

The simplest and most beginner-friendly and time-effective type is pre-match value betting.

The majority of bettors (speaking about sharp ones only) are focusing entirely on pre-match betting no matter what kind of strategy they follow.

On average, you can make have a 4-7% ROI with pre-match value betting. The amount you can make highly depends on your risk tolerance and variance as well.

So, if your total stake were 10.000 Euros in a month, you can expect a profit of around 400-700 Euros with pre-match value betting.

This amount can be increased by having a well-built betting history like RebelBetting uses. This will help you exclude leagues, markets and odds range that are not performing well.

You can learn more about their services in my RebelBetting review.

The big advantage of EV betting on events before the start is the higher predictability and bigger success rate when the bettor does not have too much experience.

People focusing on this strategy tend to have a better success rate and higher profitability compared to in-play value betting.

I will explain why.

Live value betting profitability

Live value betting is by far the most profitable betting strategy. You can easily have an ROI of above 10% end even 15%.

There is contrary in the sentences below. First time I said pre-match has higher profitability and after that, I stated: In-play value betting is more profitable.

The thing is: up to a certain level of knowledge and risk tolerance, pre-match value betting is more profitable to most bettors.

When the matches are in-play, you will need to have additional skills, high-risk tolerance and persistence.

Many bettors think it’s almost impossible to make money while the matches are in-play and the odds are moving so fast.

Well, if you start using the tools I mentioned in my best value betting software article, you can have a better ROI in the long run.

If you are willing to invest the time, energy, and money, you can make significantly more profits on in-play value bets.

But for this, you need to know and implement the following influencing factors:

Key factors influencing the profitability of value betting

1. Number of bookmakers and accounts available to you

For a successful and profitable value betting activity you will need access to licensed, hopefully, trustworthy and slow betting sites.

Each soft bookie will limit your betting account sooner or later if you start winning.

So, having access to more bookies will help you stay in the game for a longer period.

2. Initial bankroll designated for value betting

Having a large starting capital can help you earn more right from the start but it’s not essential.

I started my betting activity with a relatively small bank. Even if you have only 100-200 Euros, you can start value betting.

But it is important to know that bettors with a decent balance of 1000-2000 Euros can place significantly more bets with higher stakes as well.

This will result in faster-growing profits.

3. Money management strategy

The stake management in your value betting strategy will have a crucial effect on your profitability.

A long-lasting bad decision can mean no profits or even losses.

If you really don’t have any idea about stake management, you should stick to a flat staking method that is slowly increased when winning.

And obviously, you can decrease it as well when facing a longer losing streak.

A well-managed staking plan would be using stakes of 2-3% of your actual betting balance to a certain level.

After growing your betting balance too big, you can decrease this % to 1-2% in order to handle them as “normal stakes” – psychologically speaking.

4. Software used for scanning bookmakers

The amount you can make with value betting highly depends on the value betting software you are using.

I handle this question as my mission to make people understand that a cheap tool is not always bad.

But in almost every case it is significantly worse than a premium/expensive EV bet finder.

I’ve used many value betting finders and the main outcome was that a cheap/free tool can help you to make a smaller profit.

But in most cases, these winnings will not be worth your time if you are planning value betting as a lifestyle/income source.

The scanning speed, market, and bookie coverage of a premium tool will help you make more profits from value betting than the price difference compared to a cheap scanner.

5. Value betting variance

The variance in value betting (facing longer losing/winning streaks) is a big reason why people choose to avoid this betting technique.

To be honest, it was one of the main reasons why I stopped value betting for shorter periods.

I know for a fact that this is the most profitable betting strategy, but sometimes you simply can’t figure out why you are not making profits.

It’s not unusual that value bettors are not profitable for several weeks or even months in some cases.

Can you make money on value betting?

The answer is a strong Yes. You can make serious profits with value betting but it’s not the most predictable income you will achieve.

Due to the nature of this strategy, you are beating the house edge and statistical probability of an outcome ON AVERAGE.

The problem comes when you can’t bet enough bets to meet that minimum number of bets to beat the bookies on average.

In a summary, you either become persistent for a long time or you will fail in the middle of your value betting journey.

6. Time invested in learning and placing value bets

The available bookmakers for Positive EV betting are a crucial part of your long-term success.

But the amount of time you are willing to invest in learning about value betting will have the biggest impact on the amount of money you will make with value betting.

After several months of EV betting, I thought I’m profitable enough and I know everything about this strategy to succeed for years.

In these moments it is not rare that bookies will notice your activity, markets, and odds ranges you use.

It might sound strange, but your long-term plans can be cancelled by a bookie who decides to cut the odds on certain sports/markets.

By this, they will take away your statistical edge and make value betting almost impossible.

These are the moments when you either give up or try finding new markets/sports/bookies to make money value betting on.

There always be a new market/bookie that offers wrong odds/lines to make money on.

Obstacles of value betting profitability

Value betting is an extremely lucrative intelligent betting approach. With such high profitability, your balance at bookmakers will, slowly but constantly, be growing.

Bookmakers use algorithms to detect any intelligent betting activities.

As soon as bookmakers identify you as a winning player, regardless of the reason, you’ll encounter various limitations.

The best-case scenario involves remaining undetected for an extended period which might be even months.

Unfortunately, if you’re a winning player and your balance becomes too high/noticeable, bookmakers will limit your maximum stakes.

Regardless of whether they can prove you’re an arbitrage or value bettor, winning players are unwelcome.

How does value betting work?

Begin value betting with your own bookmaker accounts. Most of them will impose limitations within a few months to a year, depending on your betting activity.

The subsequent step is a grey area. Using friends and family’s betting accounts can be a sustainable strategy for continuing value betting if you have numerous connections.

After some time, you may run out of accounts. The next possible step is using betting exchanges like Betfair, Asian bookmakers, or betting brokers.

But this type requires betting automation on a high level and only a few developers are capable of earning from value betting in this way.

Each option demands a great deal of experience to profit from value betting.

Your ROI with these bookmakers is considerably lower than with soft bookmakers. My suggestion is to think several steps ahead, even at the beginning of your value betting journey.

Please check my relevant articles to stay informed about new trends and possibilities:


Is value betting profitable?

Yes, value betting is still the most profitable sports betting strategy based on mathematics and statistics. It is based on generating long-term profits by beating the statistical probability with overpriced odds.

Can you make money on value betting?

Yes, you can make money with value betting. Both pre-match and in-play value betting are still profitable and the most rewarding betting techniques.

Does value betting work?

Yes, value betting still works in the present. Each bookmaker is offering overpriced betting outcomes which can generate a long-term profit for value bettors.

Similar Posts